AI
AI Just Beat Humans at Predicting the Future, and a 25 Million Dollar Seed Says the Money Saw It First
London startup Mantic beat every human forecaster in this summer's Metaculus Cup, and on Friday it raised 25 million dollars in a seed round led by Radical Ventures. Microsoft's venture fund M12, Thinking Machines Lab, and Balderton Capital joined the round. The backing is a bet that predicting the future has become a technical problem, and this team just set the high score.
The tournament results, wrapping up this month, marked a first: AI entrants dominated a forecasting competition where human judgment used to hold the edge. Mantic outperformed every human contestant and finished behind only one bot, laertes. Its approach is to specialize frontier models from other labs specifically for forecasting, then test its system on historical data, grade the results, and improve in a loop.
CEO Toby Shevlane co founded Mantic with Ben Day in 2024 after working as a research scientist at Google DeepMind. He described the mission plainly: upgrading the level at which humans can understand the future. His earlier work at DeepMind sparked the idea, when he needed help predicting global events relevant to AI itself.
The standout detail from the tournament was independence from the crowd. In one question, human forecasters overwhelmingly predicted that Shakira's "Dai Dai" would stay behind "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100, and they were wrong. Mantic refused to pile onto the consensus. Earlier, it gave Abelardo De La Espriella roughly a 40 percent chance of winning Colombia's presidential election against a consensus near 30 percent, and De La Espriella won.
The money is already paying attention. Radical Ventures partner Aaron Rosenberg, who joined Mantic's board, said the startup has drawn interest from companies and government agencies worldwide, with some already integrating its system. Hedge funds and trading firms were especially eager, and Rosenberg put the thesis plainly: superhuman forecasting can make money immediately.
The most intriguing line in the whole raise is the customer list Mantic declined to name. Companies and government agencies around the world have already integrated the system, according to Rosenberg, which means superhuman forecasting is already quietly shaping decisions somewhere you will feel the effects. Prediction markets have long rewarded the well informed; now the well informed can rent better calibration by the seat.
For you, this is forecasting turning from art into infrastructure. When probabilities are priced by machines that grade themselves, decisions across markets, policy, and planning get sharper. Mantic is selling a clearer view of what comes next, and 25 million dollars says buyers are already lining up.
Quick answers
What is this story about?
London startup Mantic beat every human forecaster in this summer's Metaculus Cup, and on Friday it raised 25 million dollars in a seed round led by Radical Ventures. Microsoft's venture fund M12, Thinking Machines Lab, and Balderton Capital joined the round. The backing is a bet that predicting the future has become a technical problem, and this team just set the high score.
Why does this story matter?
For you, this is forecasting turning from art into infrastructure. When probabilities are priced by machines that grade themselves, decisions across markets, policy, and planning get sharper. Mantic is selling a clearer view of what comes next, and 25 million dollars says buyers are already lining up.
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