Crypto
Congress Lost the Pen: Bernstein Says the SEC and CFTC Will Write Crypto's Rulebook, Aggressively and Swiftly
The Senate's procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act ended 49 to 50 on Tuesday, 11 short of the 60 votes needed to advance the bill, and the next chapter of American crypto rulemaking is already taking shape. Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein told clients on Wednesday that the stalled vote shifts the coming stretch of rulemaking to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and they expect the process to be 'aggressive and swift' to make up for the time spent negotiating the legislation. The Block reported the note on September 16.
Bernstein's analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, laid out the agenda they expect the two agencies to tackle: the classification of native crypto tokens, protections for DeFi and self custody infrastructure, and rules governing equity tokenization. They also see room for faster approvals of real world asset perpetual futures, coordination between the SEC and CFTC on single stock perpetuals, and amended rules around the classification of federal sports event contracts as swaps.
One immediate consequence favors the industry's biggest platforms. The stalled legislation leaves the stablecoin rewards framework unchanged, Bernstein said, because the compromise text would have prohibited rewards on idle stablecoin balances and tied rewards to customer activity. With the bill on the shelf, platforms such as Coinbase can keep offering rewards on idle balances. The analysts wrote that stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS, the stablecoin law already on the books.
The legislative calendar explains why the agencies now lead. Analysts at StoneX Financial, led by Mark Palmer, called the bill finished for this Congress, citing only 14 working days left in the Senate before campaign season, and noted Senator Cynthia Lummis's comment that the next realistic shot at the Clarity Act may wait until 2030. Polymarket odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 fell from 82 percent in February to 16 percent before the vote. StoneX also flagged that the OCC and FDIC have proposed rules that could presume an issuer violates the GENIUS Act's issuer yield provision if it pays an affiliate that then rewards stablecoin holders, an issue that could ultimately land in court once GENIUS takes effect in January 2027.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong saw this outcome coming. In a CNBC interview on September 10, he said the industry would gain regulatory clarity whether the Senate passed the bill or the regulators moved on their own, saying the industry would get regulatory clarity one way or another in the days around the vote. He also reiterated his long term bitcoin outlook, calling $400,000 by 2030 a reasonable target and saying the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle.
For builders and investors, the message is continuity. The rulebook is being written by the agencies that already hold the pens, on a timetable Bernstein describes as aggressive and swift, while the stablecoin economy keeps running under the GENIUS framework. Congress had its turn with the comprehensive bill; the regulators have their turn now, and the market gets its clarity either way.
Sources
New to crypto? Read the crypto glossary, browse frequent questions, read our story, or explore the story archive.