Crypto
Bitcoin's Options Market Just Flipped Bullish for the First Time in a Year
Follow the money with conviction behind it. Bitcoin's options market has flipped bullish for the first time in 12 months, according to data from options platform Derive.xyz, with traders betting bitcoin reaches 80,000 dollars or higher by December. After months near two year lows around 60,000 dollars, the late August rebound past 70,000 dollars looks less like a bounce and more like a turn.
The options market is the most honest sentiment gauge in crypto because every position costs real money. The 25 delta skew, which compares demand for bullish call options against protective puts, turned positive on August 20, meaning traders now pay a premium for upside exposure. Open interest for the December expiry clusters at the 80,000 dollar strike with about 710 million dollars in notional value, and at 100,000 dollars with roughly 530 million. "That is a bit bullish," said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, in what might be the understatement of the quarter.
The spot market is telling the same story with fresh institutional participation. Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly 2 billion dollars of inflows in the week of August 17, after eight straight weeks of outflows through May and June. Matthew Dibb, chief operating officer of Singapore based crypto investment manager Stack Funds, noted bitcoin sat in oversold territory for some time. Dawson attributes the improved mood partly to capital rotating back into crypto after the blockbuster SpaceX IPO drew money elsewhere, while Korean equities, another favorite of speculative investors, have cooled.
The macro calendar gives the rally its next tests. Traders assign an 85 percent likelihood to a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, with long end bond yields nearing 5 percent. Charles Schwab head of crypto research Jim Ferraioli points to a possible upside surprise: a signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that a hike would stand alone rather than start a cycle. Warsh has resisted committing the Fed to any set path. Meanwhile some bitcoin bulls see the Treasury's increased buybacks, aimed at tamping down yields, as stoking dollar debasement concerns that lift demand for scarce assets. Siebert Financial senior analyst Brian Vieten calls it the return of the debasement trade, with bitcoin's structural demand picture improving.
Policy adds a second potential catalyst. The Senate takes a procedural vote Tuesday on the Clarity Act, the market structure bill that would define which tokens count as commodities. Ferraioli told Reuters: "If the bill unexpectedly passes, I think that would be a fundamental catalyst to the upside." Bitcoin still sits roughly 50 percent below its October 2025 peak above 126,000 dollars, which means the upside math has room.
The takeaway for holders is that the smartest money in the room just changed its posture. Options traders, ETF allocators and macro desks are all pointing the same direction for the first time in a year. Wednesday's Fed decision and Tuesday's Senate vote will decide how fast the move unfolds, but the positioning underneath it has already turned. In markets, positioning is the story before price confirms it.
Sources
- Reuters: Bitcoin's late summer rally faces Fed, Congress
- Barron's: Bitcoin slips below $80,000 after jobs data
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin recovers toward $79,000
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