Crypto

Bitcoin Keeps 80,000 in Sight as August CPI Lands at 3.4 Percent

By Omar aka Crypt0 · Sep 12, 2026

Bitcoin traded near 77,000 dollars on Friday after the August Consumer Price Index matched expectations at 3.4 percent compared with a year earlier. The headline index rose 0.4 percent from July, exactly what economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3 percent from July, a touch above the 0.2 percent forecast, while the annual core rate cooled to 2.4 percent, its slowest pace since February 2021.

The market reaction was pure whiplash. Bitcoin dipped to 76,000 dollars in the minutes after the 8:30 a.m. Eastern release, then reversed hard, climbing back near 79,000 dollars and gaining more than 3 percent on the day at one point, according to Cointelegraph and TradingView data. The move echoed United States equities, which also turned green after a weak start. The S&P 500 added about 1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite gained about 1.1 percent, powered by the CPI reading landing close to forecasts a day after the Producer Price Index overshot.

Behind the rally sits a bigger bet. Traders pushed the odds of a quarter point Federal Reserve rate move on September 16 to 85 percent on Friday, up from 60 percent a week earlier, per the CME FedWatch tool. Reuters reported the odds briefly touching 90 percent, with the two year Treasury yield jumping to 4.61 percent, its highest in more than two years. The irony is how the hot core number was built. CoinDesk's Stephen Alpher reported the true core print was 0.29 percent, one hundredth of a point below the rounding line, and that a record 1.549 percent monthly jump in telephone services, likely tied to AT&T retiring old unlimited plans and raising administrative fees, did the heavy lifting. Bank of America wrote that the effects look temporary and should unwind in the coming months.

The backdrop is a market torn between two forces. Trading firm QCP Capital noted Bitcoin surged from 63,000 dollars to 82,000 dollars in the second half of August on the idea of Treasury liquidity support, and argued that a competing 5 percent return on Treasury bonds, with the 30 year yield touching its highest since June 2004, undercuts that story. UBS wrote that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, after his hawkish Jackson Hole speech, has painted himself into a corner, and holding rates now would damage the Fed's credibility. On the supportive side, about 1 billion dollars flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, market maker Wintermute flagged 75,000 and 82,000 dollars as key levels into the Fed meeting, and Schwab's Jim Ferraioli pointed to roughly 80,000 dollars as a key cost basis level for investors.

Crypto related stocks joined the Friday rebound. Coinbase rose 4.4 percent, Circle added 3.3 percent, Strategy gained 4.3 percent, and Gemini climbed 6.2 percent, per CoinDesk, as markets that had spent the week in a post Labor Day funk came back to buying.

For readers holding Bitcoin or just watching the cycle, the takeaway is simple. Next Wednesday's Fed decision is now the single biggest price catalyst on the calendar, and markets are pricing it as close to certain. The 80,000 dollar level, backed by heavy ETF demand and a crowded cost basis, is the line to watch. If the Fed delivers exactly what traders expect, the market has already done the adjusting, and attention turns to the October meeting, where traders already price 42 percent odds of another move.

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